Prescriptions

Initial Prediction: Birds of Prey will be certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.

Birds of Prey is out in theaters, and with 231 reviews in, Margot Robbie’s wild and wacky anti-hero romp is sitting comfortably at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes.

While it is likely to dip slightly as more reviews roll in, it has done well enough so far to be “Certified Fresh,” which means that my little prediction turned out right.

To take a look at close comparables:

82% puts it well above Aquaman, and just below Shazam!, which I hope offers an important touchstone for the creative minds over at DC.

The DCU is a dark place, but it’s also incredibly silly, and leaning into that silliness can go a long way toward creating evocative cinema. You don’t need to be grim to be good, despite what Christopher Nolan’s success might have led them to believe.

I’m pretty happy with the analysis on this one too, I said that Shazam! was its closest comparable, which is more or less correct. I could have given more weight to other, recent DC films rather than relying so much on Robbie’s oeuvre. If I had, it may have led to a closer guesstimate on the actual score, but without more cases — I can’t really say.

70% odds also seems pretty fair, especially given this is only the second time I’ve used this particular estimator.

While I have little to say about what the box office for this film will look like, I’m optimistic, and looking forward to seeing it myself.

I still don’t see any particular reason to buy Time Warner, but if Birds of Prey does well, there is a better than average chance that it will drive a raft of more entertaining content set in the DCU. In the long term, this is a good thing, and could potentially lead to something tradeable.

For now, you should probably just watchlist it.

Prediction Result

My odds were 70% that Birds of Prey would be certified fresh. I was correct. Currently, Birds of Prey has an 82% rotten tomatoes score.

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